An outlook to 2040 report is the second publication in the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation project. This foresight report creates a 2040 outlook for the global context and the aid system.
In this paper, the Future of Aid 2040 community identified 16 global drivers (e.g. climate change, geopolitical shifts, technological disruption) and nine aid-specific ones (e.g. donor dynamics, localisation, ethical shifts) that will shape the aid system by 2040. This report uses a triadic framework to link destabilisers, community resilience, and aid system configuration to create a typology of crises which are often overlapping and compounding.
"The 800 participants from across the Global South who contributed to this work have fundamentally altered the conversation, ensuring that lived experience, rather than institutional inertia, drives the analysis forward."
Puji Pujiono, Senior Advisor, the Pujiono Centre
The topic of transformation for aid actors and the aid system is not new. There have been countless initiatives, repeated endeavours and sustained investments into consultations and processes aimed towards transformation. Yet, true transformation requires all aid actors to unpack the culture of the aid system and the power dynamics that define it, to rebuild a system that puts communities and local actors at the centre of decision making; valuing their expertise and lived experience, instead of trying to mould them into the image of intermediary actors operating on a smaller scale.
Aid actors must leverage this period of uncertainty brought about by cuts in funding to build on what works, and challenge what does not, in order to co-create a more just and effective aid system for those who matter most.
This is at the heart of the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation project. This first phase of the study is exploratory: to analyse the changes in the global context and aid system by 2040. To develop this collective intelligence, the Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to Transformation study has been building a diverse community of participants to reflect the broad spectrum of perspectives and experiences within aid. The high level of engagement from local civil society workers—particularly from the Global South—has reshaped the framing of key debates, moving discussions beyond traditional aid paradigms. Most critically, among the nearly 900 participants, nearly 4 in 10 have lived experience of crises. Outputs of this structured consultation are outlined in this report.
- Read the first report in the series, Unpacking the aid system: laying the groundwork for transformation here.
- Visit the IARAN Future of Aid webpage
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